SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 56.62%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 20.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.89%) and 2-0 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.75%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (5.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bologna would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bologna | Draw | Spezia |
56.62% ( -0.04) | 22.71% ( 0.05) | 20.67% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 53.71% ( -0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.41% ( -0.24) | 45.59% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.08% ( -0.23) | 67.91% ( 0.22) |
| Bologna Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.11% ( -0.1) | 15.89% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.88% ( -0.18) | 45.12% ( 0.18) |
| Spezia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.86% ( -0.15) | 36.14% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.08% ( -0.15) | 72.92% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bologna | Draw | Spezia |
| 1-0 @ 10.56% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 9.89% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.06% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 5.96% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.09% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.79% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.74% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.42% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.37% Total : 56.62% | 1-1 @ 10.75% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.74% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 5.03% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.7% | 0-1 @ 5.84% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 5.47% ( -0)0-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.01% ( -0)Other @ 1.81% Total : 20.67% |
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