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Serie A | Gameweek 4
Sep 16, 2023 at 5pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
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Inter Milan
5 - 1
AC Milan

Mkhitaryan (5', 69'), Thuram (38'), Calhanoglu (79' pen.), Frattesi (90+3')
Calhanoglu (72'), Frattesi (90+4')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Leao (57')
Thiaw (24'), Hernandez (61')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Roma 1-2 AC Milan
Friday, September 1 at 7.45pm in Serie A

We said: Inter Milan 2-1 AC Milan

Inter and Milan not only top the table together but have also scored the most goals in Serie A this season, with eight apiece. However, Saturday's contest should be much tighter, with the fear of derby defeat proving a major factor. As a result, scoring twice would surely be enough to secure maximum points, and such is the Nerazzurri's firepower they can do so and beat their Rossoneri rivals once again. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 47.42%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 26.82% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (8.66%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.

Result
Inter MilanDrawAC Milan
47.42% (0.0019999999999953 0) 25.76% (0.0030000000000001 0) 26.82%
Both teams to score 51.11% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.58% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)52.42% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.9% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)74.1% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Inter Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.9% (0.00099999999999056 0)22.1% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.53% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)55.47% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.62% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)34.38% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.91% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)71.09% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Inter Milan 47.42%
    AC Milan 26.82%
    Draw 25.75%
Inter MilanDrawAC Milan
1-0 @ 11.47% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.24%
2-0 @ 8.66%
3-1 @ 4.65%
3-0 @ 4.36%
3-2 @ 2.48%
4-1 @ 1.76%
4-0 @ 1.64%
4-2 @ 0.94%
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 47.42%
1-1 @ 12.24%
0-0 @ 7.6% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-2 @ 4.93% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
Other @ 0.98%
Total : 25.75%
0-1 @ 8.11% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-2 @ 6.54%
0-2 @ 4.33%
1-3 @ 2.33%
2-3 @ 1.76%
0-3 @ 1.54% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.21%
Total : 26.82%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Inter Milan 4-0 Fiorentina
Sunday, September 3 at 5.30pm in Serie A
Last Game: Cagliari 0-2 Inter Milan
Monday, August 28 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Inter Milan 2-0 Monza
Saturday, August 19 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Inter Milan 4-2 Egnatia Rrogozhine
Sunday, August 13 at 7pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Salzburg 3-4 Inter Milan
Wednesday, August 9 at 6pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: PSG 1-2 Inter Milan
Tuesday, August 1 at 11am in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Roma 1-2 AC Milan
Friday, September 1 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 4-1 Torino
Saturday, August 26 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Bologna 0-2 AC Milan
Monday, August 21 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 4-2 Novara
Sunday, August 13 at 9.30am in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: AC Milan 0-1 Trento
Wednesday, August 9 at 5pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: AC Milan 0-1 Barcelona
Wednesday, August 2 at 4am in Club Friendlies 1


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