There is little to choose between two of the teams to have kept the most clean sheets in 2022 - nine for Milan and six for Lazio (who are joint-second in that regard) - so goals could be at a premium. The Rossoneri are under more intense pressure than their Roman rivals and may crack at some point, which would have serious consequences for their dreams of the Scudetto. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 37.04%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 36.97% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.24%) and 0-2 (6.18%). The likeliest Lazio win was 1-0 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
Lazio	Draw	AC Milan
36.97%	25.99%	37.04%

Both teams to score 54.28%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.88%

50.12%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.91%

72.09%

Lazio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.65%

26.35%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.51%

61.49%

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.69%

26.31%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.56%

61.44%

Score Analysis

Lazio 36.97%

AC Milan 37.04%

Draw 25.99%

Lazio	Draw	AC Milan
1-0 @ 9.25% 2-1 @ 8.23% 2-0 @ 6.17% 3-1 @ 3.66% 3-0 @ 2.74% 3-2 @ 2.44% 4-1 @ 1.22% 4-0 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.34% Total : 36.97%	1-1 @ 12.34% 0-0 @ 6.93% 2-2 @ 5.5% 3-3 @ 1.09% Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.99%	0-1 @ 9.26% 1-2 @ 8.24% 0-2 @ 6.18% 1-3 @ 3.67% 0-3 @ 2.75% 2-3 @ 2.45% 1-4 @ 1.23% 0-4 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.35% Total : 37.04%