Along with Sampdoria, one of two teams not to have drawn any Serie A home matches in 2022, Spezia would surely take a point on this occasion. However, Lazio have other ideas, and a powerful mixture of determination to bounce back from the Milan loss and their greater need for the points will ensure they go in all guns blazing on Saturday night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 60.39%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 18.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.23%) and 1-2 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.15%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-0 (5.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.

Result
Spezia	Draw	Lazio
18.14%	21.47%	60.39%

Both teams to score 53.41%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.14%

43.86%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.75%

66.25%

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.16%

37.84%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.39%

74.61%

Lazio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.91%

14.09%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.3%

41.7%

Score Analysis

Spezia 18.14%

Lazio 60.38%

Draw 21.47%

Spezia	Draw	Lazio
1-0 @ 5.18% 2-1 @ 4.93% 2-0 @ 2.52% 3-1 @ 1.6% 3-2 @ 1.57% Other @ 2.34% Total : 18.14%	1-1 @ 10.15% 0-0 @ 5.33% 2-2 @ 4.84% 3-3 @ 1.02% Other @ 0.13% Total : 21.47%	0-1 @ 10.44% 0-2 @ 10.23% 1-2 @ 9.95% 0-3 @ 6.69% 1-3 @ 6.5% 0-4 @ 3.28% 1-4 @ 3.19% 2-3 @ 3.16% 2-4 @ 1.55% 0-5 @ 1.29% 1-5 @ 1.25% Other @ 2.86% Total : 60.38%