SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 51.58%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 24.78% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.7%) and 0-2 (8.54%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-0 (6.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spezia | Draw | Fiorentina |
24.78% ( 0.2) | 23.64% ( 0) | 51.58% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 55.96% ( 0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.85% ( 0.16) | 45.14% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.51% ( 0.16) | 67.49% ( -0.16) |
| Spezia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.85% ( 0.25) | 32.15% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.37% ( 0.29) | 68.63% ( -0.29) |
| Fiorentina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.47% ( -0.02) | 17.52% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.95% ( -0.02) | 48.04% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spezia | Draw | Fiorentina |
| 1-0 @ 6.39% ( -0) 2-1 @ 6.32% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 3.63% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.39% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.08% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.37% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.6% Total : 24.78% | 1-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.63% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.5% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.64% | 0-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 9.7% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 8.54% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 5.63% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 4.96% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 3.19% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 2.45% ( -0)0-4 @ 2.16% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.39% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.74% Total : 51.58% |
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