Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 73.86%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Crotone had a probability of 10.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.48%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.5%), while for a Crotone win it was 1-2 (3.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monza would win this match.
