Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 41.09%. A win for Alessandria had a probability of 31.67% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.49%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Alessandria win was 1-0 (9.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monza would win this match.
