Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 36.62%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.54%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Lecce win was 0-1 (11.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.