Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 41.65%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 33.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 0-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
