Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 50.95%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Lausanne Sport had a probability of 24.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 2-0 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Lausanne Sport win it was 0-1 (7.14%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lugano would win this match.