Still licking their wounds following their relegation, Tondela will head into the weekend seeking to restore some pride and pick up their first cup title. However, they have lost each of their last 12 games against Porto, while managing just one win in their last 15 encounters. Looking at the gulf in quality and experience between the sides, we are tipping Porto to come away with a comfortable win and clinch the title on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 81.78%. A draw had a probability of 12.4% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 5.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.99%) and 1-0 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.88%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (2.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
1.58) 
-1.24) 
