Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 37.13%. A win for Cerrito had a probability of 35.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.97%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Cerrito win was 0-1 (10.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cerro Largo in this match.
