Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 36.23%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 35.15% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.62%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (11.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
