Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 18, 2022 at 11pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central
We said: Nacional 2-1 Velez Sarsfield
A draw in this one would be of no good to either side, so we expect both teams to go in search of all three points. That said, we are also backing the home team to narrowly edge out their visitors and emerge triumphant come the sound of the final whistle.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 36.52%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 35.5% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.81%) and 0-2 (6.7%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (11.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.
| Result |
| Nacional | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
35.5% ( 0) | 27.98% ( -0.01) | 36.52% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 47.86% ( 0.02) |
| 41.83% ( 0.02) | 58.17% ( -0.02) |
| 21.18% ( 0.02) | 78.82% ( -0.02) |
| 68.86% ( 0.01) | 31.14% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 32.53% ( 0.02) | 67.47% ( -0.01) |
| 69.5% ( 0.02) | 30.5% ( -0.02) |
