SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 38%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 36.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.01%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 2-1 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff MU would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Cardiff MU |
36.87% ( 0.19) | 25.13% ( 0.08) | 38% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 57.3% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.75% ( -0.36) | 46.25% ( 0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.46% ( -0.34) | 68.54% ( 0.34) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.39% ( -0.06) | 24.6% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.89% ( -0.09) | 59.11% ( 0.09) |
| Cardiff MU Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76% ( -0.3) | 24% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.75% ( -0.43) | 58.25% ( 0.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Cardiff MU |
| 2-1 @ 8.29% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.28% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 5.81% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 3.87% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.36% ( -0)4-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.87% Total : 36.87% | 1-1 @ 11.81% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 5.91% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.12% | 1-2 @ 8.43% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 8.43% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 6.01% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.01% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 2.86% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.43% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 1.02% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.98% Total : 38% |
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