Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 60.89%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Connah's Quay Nomads had a probability of 17.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.24%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.03%), while for a Connah's Quay Nomads win it was 0-1 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
