Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia win with a probability of 43.28%. A win for Newell's Old Boys had a probability of 30.07% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.9%). The likeliest Newell's Old Boys win was 0-1 (9.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gimnasia would win this match.