Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barracas Central win with a probability of 37.3%. A win for Sarmiento had a probability of 32.94% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barracas Central win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.42%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Sarmiento win was 0-1 (12.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barracas Central would win this match.
