Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Patronato win with a probability of 41.14%. A draw had a probability of 30.1% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 28.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Patronato win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.44%) and 2-1 (7.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.34%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
