River Plate were very impressive during their previous Argentine Primera Division season, particularly at home, while Internacional have struggled in recent weeks, despite being dominant in the group stage of the Copa Libertadores.
As such, we expect the hosts to emerge as comfortable winners, building up a strong lead ahead of the second leg in Porto Alegre next week.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 59.73%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Internacional had a probability of 16.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.89%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.97%), while for a Internacional win it was 0-1 (6.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
0.04) 
-0.02) 
