SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 54.65%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 24.28% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.1%) and 1-0 (6.81%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 1-2 (6.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | FC Koln |
54.65% ( -0.17) | 21.06% ( 0.08) | 24.28% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 64.55% ( -0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.43% ( -0.3) | 33.57% ( 0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.62% ( -0.34) | 55.38% ( 0.34) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.55% ( -0.15) | 12.44% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.63% ( -0.31) | 38.37% ( 0.31) |
| FC Koln Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.73% ( -0.1) | 26.27% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.61% ( -0.14) | 61.38% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | FC Koln |
| 2-1 @ 9.49% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.1% ( 0.03)1-0 @ 6.81% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 6.59% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 4.93% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 4.41% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 3.43% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 2.57% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 2.3% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.43% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.07% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.54% Total : 54.65% | 1-1 @ 9.11% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 6.34% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.27% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.38% Total : 21.06% | 1-2 @ 6.09% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 4.37% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 2.92% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.83% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.71% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 2.22% Total : 24.28% |
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