Aiming for a fourth successive win, Hoffenheim look set to frustrate Union Berlin, who will be fatigued after pushing Real Madrid all the way in midweek. Still, we expect the two sides to play out a low-scoring draw on Saturday, as Union have lost just one of their home league games since the beginning of last season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 37.75%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 37.64% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.81%) and 0-2 (5.73%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 2-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.

Result
Union Berlin	Draw	Hoffenheim
37.64%	24.61%	37.75%

Both teams to score 59.19%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.18%

43.82%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.8%

66.2%

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.91%

23.09%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.06%

56.94%

Hoffenheim Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.97%

23.03%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.15%

56.85%

Score Analysis

Union Berlin 37.64%

Hoffenheim 37.75%

Draw 24.61%

Union Berlin	Draw	Hoffenheim
2-1 @ 8.39% 1-0 @ 7.8% 2-0 @ 5.71% 3-1 @ 4.1% 3-2 @ 3.01% 3-0 @ 2.79% 4-1 @ 1.5% 4-2 @ 1.1% 4-0 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.22% Total : 37.64%	1-1 @ 11.44% 2-2 @ 6.16% 0-0 @ 5.32% 3-3 @ 1.47% Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.61%	1-2 @ 8.4% 0-1 @ 7.81% 0-2 @ 5.73% 1-3 @ 4.11% 2-3 @ 3.01% 0-3 @ 2.81% 1-4 @ 1.51% 2-4 @ 1.11% 0-4 @ 1.03% Other @ 2.23% Total : 37.75%