Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 48.17%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Juventude had a probability of 23.47%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.75%), while for a Juventude win it was 0-1 (9.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.