Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 47.64%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 24.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.61%) and 2-1 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.73%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (9.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.
