SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nacional | 18 | 23 | 37 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 18 | 13 | 36 |
| 3 | Boston River | 18 | 7 | 34 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Sarmiento | 12 | -7 | 18 |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 15 | Colon | 13 | 0 | 16 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 43.51%. A win for Union had a probability of 31.22% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Union win was 0-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Union |
43.51% ( -0.08) | 25.26% ( -0.02) | 31.22% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 55.43% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.93% ( 0.12) | 48.06% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.77% ( 0.11) | 70.23% ( -0.1) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.94% ( 0.01) | 22.06% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.6% ( 0.02) | 55.4% ( -0.02) |
| Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.11% ( 0.12) | 28.89% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.24% ( 0.15) | 64.76% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Union |
| 1-0 @ 9.63% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.28% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 4.55% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.67% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.83% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.72% 4-0 @ 1.39% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.07% ( 0)Other @ 2.34% Total : 43.51% | 1-1 @ 11.95% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.37% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 5.61% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.25% | 0-1 @ 7.91% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.43% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.91% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.07% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.32% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.59% Total : 31.22% |
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