SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Sarmiento | 12 | -7 | 18 |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 15 | Colon | 13 | 0 | 16 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nacional | 18 | 23 | 37 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 18 | 13 | 36 |
| 3 | Boston River | 18 | 7 | 34 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 43.86%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.47%) and 2-0 (6.32%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-2 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Union | Draw | Nacional |
43.86% ( 0.04) | 23.56% ( 0.02) | 32.58% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 62% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.29% ( -0.1) | 39.71% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.93% ( -0.1) | 62.06% ( 0.1) |
| Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.55% ( -0.02) | 18.45% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 50.37% ( -0.04) | 49.63% ( 0.04) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.03% ( -0.08) | 23.97% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 41.79% ( -0.12) | 58.21% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union | Draw | Nacional |
| 2-1 @ 9.02% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.47% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 6.32% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.08% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.56% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.15% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.53% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0)Other @ 3.59% Total : 43.86% | 1-1 @ 10.67% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.55% | 1-2 @ 7.62% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.32% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.51% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.63% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.07% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.15% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.3% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.89% Total : 32.58% |
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