SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 44.7%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 32.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.13%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 1-2 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Arsenal |
44.7% ( -0.06) | 23.17% ( -0.02) | 32.12% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 63.22% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.97% ( 0.12) | 38.02% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.7% ( 0.13) | 60.29% ( -0.13) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.56% ( 0.02) | 17.43% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.11% ( 0.04) | 47.88% ( -0.04) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.57% ( 0.1) | 23.42% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.58% ( 0.15) | 57.42% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Arsenal |
| 2-1 @ 9.04% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.13% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 6.23% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 5.27% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.82% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.3% 4-2 @ 1.67% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.58% ( -0)Other @ 4.03% Total : 44.7% | 1-1 @ 10.35% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.56% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.08% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.33% Total : 23.17% | 1-2 @ 7.51% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.93% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 4.3% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.64% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.18% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.15% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.02% Total : 32.12% |
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