SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 57.95%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Manchester United had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.58%) and 1-0 (8.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.66%), while for a Manchester United win it was 1-2 (5.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal | Draw | Manchester United |
57.95% ( 0.27) | 21.15% ( -0.09) | 20.9% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 59.4% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.76% ( 0.14) | 38.24% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.48% ( 0.15) | 60.52% ( -0.15) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87% ( 0.12) | 13% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.47% ( 0.25) | 39.53% ( -0.25) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.27% ( -0.09) | 31.72% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.85% ( -0.1) | 68.15% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal | Draw | Manchester United |
| 2-1 @ 9.86% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 8.42% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 6.7% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.84% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.85% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.42% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.98% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.75% Total : 57.95% | 1-1 @ 9.66% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.66% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.13% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.47% Other @ 0.24% Total : 21.15% | 1-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 4.74% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 2.72% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.57% Total : 20.9% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
