Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kashiwa Reysol win with a probability of 38.82%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 32.39% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kashiwa Reysol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.87%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 (11.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
