SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 62.01%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.54%) and 1-2 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.93%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (4.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Benfica in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Benfica |
17% ( -0.32) | 20.98% ( -0.19) | 62.01% ( 0.51) |
| Both teams to score 52.76% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.4% ( 0.29) | 43.59% ( -0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.01% ( 0.28) | 65.98% ( -0.28) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61% ( -0.21) | 39% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.28% ( -0.19) | 75.72% ( 0.19) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.49% ( 0.24) | 13.51% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.45% ( 0.48) | 40.55% ( -0.49) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Benfica |
| 1-0 @ 4.96% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 4.68% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 2.34% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 1.47% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 1.47% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.1% Total : 17% | 1-1 @ 9.93% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 5.27% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 4.68% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.98% | 0-2 @ 10.55% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 10.54% ( -0.04)1-2 @ 9.94% ( -0)0-3 @ 7.04% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 6.63% ( 0.06)0-4 @ 3.53% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 3.32% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.56% ( 0.02)0-5 @ 1.41% ( 0.04)1-5 @ 1.33% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.02% Total : 62% |
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