SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 58.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 19.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.5%) and 0-2 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.06%), while for an Arouca win it was 2-1 (5.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Braga in this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Braga |
19.87% ( 0.74) | 21.55% ( 0.23) | 58.58% ( -0.97) |
| Both teams to score 56.28% ( 0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.44% ( 0.04) | 41.55% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.04% ( 0.04) | 63.95% ( -0.05) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.36% ( 0.78) | 34.63% ( -0.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.64% ( 0.82) | 71.36% ( -0.83) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.1% ( -0.28) | 13.89% ( 0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.69% ( -0.56) | 41.31% ( 0.56) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Braga |
| 2-1 @ 5.34% ( 0.16) 1-0 @ 5.1% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 2.7% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 1.89% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.02% Total : 19.87% | 1-1 @ 10.06% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.27% ( 0.11)0-0 @ 4.81% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.17% Total : 21.54% | 1-2 @ 9.94% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 9.5% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 9.37% ( -0.21)1-3 @ 6.54% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 6.17% ( -0.21)2-3 @ 3.47% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 3.23% ( -0.07)0-4 @ 3.04% ( -0.13)2-4 @ 1.71% ( -0)1-5 @ 1.27% ( -0.04)0-5 @ 1.2% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.14% Total : 58.58% |
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