Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 45.79%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 28.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (7.97%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Atletico Madrid
45.79% ( 0.28)	25.41% ( 0.16)	28.8% ( -0.44)

Both teams to score 53.59% (

-0.79)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.15% (

-0.91)

49.85% (

0.91)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.15% (

-0.82)

71.84% (

0.82)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.23% (

-0.25)

21.77% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.04% (

-0.39)

54.95% (

0.39)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.5% (

-0.79)

31.5% (

0.79)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.12% (

-0.92)

67.88% (

0.92)

Score Analysis

Athletic Bilbao 45.78%

Atletico Madrid 28.8%

Draw 25.41%

Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Atletico Madrid
1-0 @ 10.45% ( 0.31) 2-1 @ 9.21% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.97% ( 0.17) 3-1 @ 4.68% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 4.05% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.78% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.36% Total : 45.78%	1-1 @ 12.07% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 6.85% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 5.32% ( -0.12) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.41%	0-1 @ 7.92% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 6.98% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 4.58% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.69% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.83% Total : 28.8%