SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 41.95%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 29.83% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.3%) and 0-2 (8.15%). The likeliest Cerro win was 1-0 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerro | Draw | Nacional |
29.83% ( 0.01) | 28.21% ( 0.01) | 41.95% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 45.87% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.97% ( -0.02) | 60.03% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.74% ( -0.02) | 80.26% ( 0.02) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.91% ( -0) | 36.08% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.13% ( -0.01) | 72.87% ( 0) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.76% ( -0.02) | 28.23% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.06% ( -0.02) | 63.94% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 10.38% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 6.69% 2-0 @ 5.29% ( 0)3-1 @ 2.27% 3-0 @ 1.8% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.44% ( -0)Other @ 1.95% Total : 29.83% | 1-1 @ 13.13% 0-0 @ 10.18% 2-2 @ 4.23% ( -0)Other @ 0.66% Total : 28.2% | 0-1 @ 12.88% 1-2 @ 8.3% ( -0)0-2 @ 8.15% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.5% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.43% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.78% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.11% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.09% ( -0)Other @ 1.71% Total : 41.95% |
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