SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 49.55%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 22.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.3%) and 1-2 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.58%), while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (9.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerro | Draw | Penarol |
22.93% ( -0.38) | 27.52% ( -0.01) | 49.55% ( 0.39) |
| Both teams to score 42.84% ( -0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.61% ( -0.23) | 61.39% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.72% ( -0.17) | 81.28% ( 0.17) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.12% ( -0.51) | 42.88% ( 0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.81% ( -0.43) | 79.19% ( 0.43) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75% ( 0.08) | 25% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.34% ( 0.11) | 59.66% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 9.08% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 5.33% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 3.84% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 1.09% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.04% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.05% Total : 22.93% | 1-1 @ 12.58% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 10.72% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.52% Total : 27.51% | 0-1 @ 14.86% ( 0.17) 0-2 @ 10.3% ( 0.14)1-2 @ 8.72% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 4.76% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 4.03% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.65% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.4% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.13% Total : 49.55% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
