SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 72.74%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 10.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.46%) and 0-3 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-0 (3.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Porto |
10.42% ( 0.13) | 16.84% ( 0.33) | 72.74% ( -0.47) |
| Both teams to score 48.32% ( -0.73) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.1% ( -1.21) | 39.9% ( 1.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.74% ( -1.27) | 62.26% ( 1.27) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.44% ( -0.56) | 46.56% ( 0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.85% ( -0.43) | 82.15% ( 0.43) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.42% ( -0.42) | 9.58% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.96% ( -0.99) | 32.04% ( 0.99) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 3.06% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.74% Total : 10.42% | 1-1 @ 8% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 4.46% ( 0.25)2-2 @ 3.59% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.8% Total : 16.84% | 0-2 @ 12.26% ( 0.23) 0-1 @ 10.46% ( 0.39)0-3 @ 9.59% ( 0)1-2 @ 9.38% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 7.33% ( -0.12)0-4 @ 5.63% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 4.3% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.09)0-5 @ 2.64% ( -0.1)1-5 @ 2.02% ( -0.11)2-4 @ 1.64% ( -0.08)0-6 @ 1.03% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.64% Total : 72.73% |
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