SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Fenix had a probability of 30.62% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.94%) and 1-2 (7.8%). The likeliest Fenix win was 1-0 (11.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fenix | Draw | Progreso |
30.62% ( -0.07) | 29.37% ( 0.06) | 40.01% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 43.09% ( -0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.38% ( -0.21) | 63.63% ( 0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.08% ( -0.15) | 82.92% ( 0.15) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.56% ( -0.17) | 37.45% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.77% ( -0.17) | 74.23% ( 0.17) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.88% ( -0.09) | 31.12% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.55% ( -0.11) | 67.45% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fenix | Draw | Progreso |
| 1-0 @ 11.44% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 6.56% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 5.62% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.15% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.84% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.75% Total : 30.62% | 1-1 @ 13.36% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 11.65% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 3.83% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.53% Total : 29.37% | 0-1 @ 13.6% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 7.94% ( 0.02)1-2 @ 7.8% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.09% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 0.9% ( -0)Other @ 2.15% Total : 40.01% |
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