Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 51.6%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 22.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.05%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (7.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
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