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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 51.52%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 24.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.66%) and 0-2 (8.91%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 1-0 (6.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
24.37% ( 0.04) | 24.12% ( -0.05) | 51.52% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 53.95% ( 0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.4% ( 0.23) | 47.6% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.2% ( 0.21) | 69.8% ( -0.21) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.17% ( 0.16) | 33.83% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.51% ( 0.17) | 70.49% ( -0.17) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.53% ( 0.09) | 18.47% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.33% ( 0.16) | 49.67% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 6.77% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 6.2% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 3.67% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.24% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.33% ( 0)Other @ 2.27% Total : 24.37% | 1-1 @ 11.43% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.25% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 5.24% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.11% | 0-1 @ 10.55% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 9.66% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 8.91% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 5.44% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 5.02% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.95% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 2.3% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 2.12% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.24% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.33% Total : 51.51% |
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