Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 48.46%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 25.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.28%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.41%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (8.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.
-0.68) 
0.78) 
