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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.05%. A win for Liverpool had a probability of 26.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.12%) and 0-2 (8.81%). The likeliest Liverpool win was 1-0 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Liverpool | Draw | Penarol |
26.7% ( -1.68) | 26.25% ( -0.23) | 47.05% ( 1.91) |
| Both teams to score 49.57% ( -0.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.61% ( -0.06) | 54.38% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.24% ( -0.05) | 75.76% ( 0.05) |
| Liverpool Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.47% ( -1.38) | 35.53% ( 1.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.7% ( -1.45) | 72.3% ( 1.45) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.9% ( 0.88) | 23.1% ( -0.88) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.04% ( 1.27) | 56.96% ( -1.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Liverpool | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 8.49% ( -0.3) 2-1 @ 6.44% ( -0.31)2-0 @ 4.4% ( -0.33)3-1 @ 2.22% ( -0.2)3-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.18)Other @ 2.01% Total : 26.7% | 1-1 @ 12.44% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 8.21% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.72% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.88% Total : 26.24% | 0-1 @ 12.02% ( 0.33) 1-2 @ 9.12% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 8.81% ( 0.46)1-3 @ 4.45% ( 0.18)0-3 @ 4.3% ( 0.33)2-3 @ 2.3% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.63% ( 0.11)0-4 @ 1.58% ( 0.16)Other @ 2.83% Total : 47.04% |
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