SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 61.76%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 17.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.8%) and 1-0 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.59%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-2 (4.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Aston Villa |
61.76% ( 0.06) | 20.54% ( 0.53) | 17.69% ( -0.59) |
| Both teams to score 55.73% ( -3.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.62% ( -3.56) | 40.37% ( 3.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.25% ( -3.76) | 62.75% ( 3.76) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.43% ( -1.07) | 12.57% ( 1.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.36% ( -2.26) | 38.64% ( 2.26) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.74% ( -2.79) | 36.26% ( 2.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.96% ( -2.93) | 73.04% ( 2.93) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 9.8% ( 0.8)1-0 @ 9.45% ( 1.13)3-1 @ 6.87% ( -0.23)3-0 @ 6.78% ( 0.29)4-1 @ 3.56% ( -0.28)4-0 @ 3.51% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.4)4-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.29)5-1 @ 1.48% ( -0.18)5-0 @ 1.46% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.61% Total : 61.76% | 1-1 @ 9.59% ( 0.48) 2-2 @ 5.04% ( -0.35)0-0 @ 4.56% ( 0.71)3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.24)Other @ 0.17% Total : 20.54% | 1-2 @ 4.86% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 4.62% ( 0.41)0-2 @ 2.35% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.26)1-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.17)Other @ 2.51% Total : 17.69% |
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