SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 55.07%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 20.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 0-1 (7.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
55.07% ( -0.49) | 24.83% ( 0.25) | 20.1% ( 0.24) |
| Both teams to score 46.48% ( -0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.21% ( -0.63) | 54.79% ( 0.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.9% ( -0.53) | 76.09% ( 0.53) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.15% ( -0.44) | 19.85% ( 0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.05% ( -0.72) | 51.94% ( 0.72) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.98% ( -0.1) | 42.02% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.55% ( -0.09) | 78.45% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 13.48% ( 0.15) 2-0 @ 10.9% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 9.45% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 5.88% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 5.1% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 2.38% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 2.06% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.61% Total : 55.06% | 1-1 @ 11.69% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 8.34% ( 0.2)2-2 @ 4.1% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.7% Total : 24.83% | 0-1 @ 7.23% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 3.14% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 1.47% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.1% Total : 20.1% |
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