SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 59.33%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 15.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.56%) and 2-1 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.56%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 0-1 (7.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
59.33% ( 0.06) | 25.6% ( -0.03) | 15.07% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 36.46% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.59% ( 0.04) | 63.41% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.24% ( 0.03) | 82.76% ( -0.03) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.39% ( 0.04) | 21.61% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.28% ( 0.06) | 54.72% ( -0.05) |
| Deportivo Maldonado Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.51% ( -0.02) | 53.49% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.04% ( -0.01) | 86.96% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 1-0 @ 17.71% 2-0 @ 13.56% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 8.49% ( 0)3-0 @ 6.93% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.33% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.65% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.66% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.36% ( 0)Other @ 2.64% Total : 59.32% | 0-0 @ 11.56% ( -0.01) 1-1 @ 11.07% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 2.66% ( -0)Other @ 0.3% Total : 25.59% | 0-1 @ 7.23% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.47% ( -0)0-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.11% Total : 15.07% |
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