SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 48.76%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 23.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.03%) and 2-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.65%), while for a River Plate win it was 0-1 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | River Plate |
48.76% ( -0.67) | 27.55% ( 0.05) | 23.69% ( 0.62) |
| Both teams to score 43.47% ( 0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.03% ( 0.27) | 60.96% ( -0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.03% ( 0.2) | 80.97% ( -0.2) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.81% ( -0.2) | 25.19% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.08% ( -0.27) | 59.92% ( 0.27) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.11% ( 0.76) | 41.89% ( -0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.66% ( 0.66) | 78.34% ( -0.66) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 14.54% ( -0.24) 2-0 @ 10.03% ( -0.21)2-1 @ 8.73% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.61% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 4.01% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.75% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.38% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.11% Total : 48.75% | 1-1 @ 12.65% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 10.55% ( -0.1)2-2 @ 3.8% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.55% Total : 27.54% | 0-1 @ 9.18% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 5.51% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 3.99% ( 0.13)1-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.15% Total : 23.69% |
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