This is a very tough match to call, and it would not be a surprise to see a home win on Monday. Rayo can be unpredictable despite their strong start, though, and we are backing Atletico to navigate their way to all three points in what should be an entertaining contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 44.52%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 29% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.93%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 0-7 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
1.05) 
-1.23) 
