For all their woes, Santos have kept clean sheets in half their league fixtures at home this season. However, without their fans behind them at Vila Belmiro - and with an interim coach in charge - they are susceptible to defeat by a Flamengo side fired up after an embarrassing setback in midweek.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 40.76%. A win for Santos had a probability of 31.59% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.36%) and 0-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Santos win was 1-0 (10.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.
-0.36) 
0.5) 
