SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 48.64%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 28.69% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.34%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest Southampton win was 2-1 (6.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Southampton | Draw | Chelsea |
28.69% ( 0.05) | 22.66% ( 0.02) | 48.64% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 63% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.56% ( -0.08) | 37.44% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.34% ( -0.09) | 59.66% ( 0.09) |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.77% ( -0.01) | 25.23% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 40.02% ( -0.01) | 59.98% ( 0.02) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.27% ( -0.05) | 15.73% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 55.18% ( -0.1) | 44.82% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Southampton | Draw | Chelsea |
| 2-1 @ 6.96% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.47% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.2% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.95% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.73% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.1% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0)Other @ 2.51% Total : 28.69% | 1-1 @ 10.1% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.97% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.82% ( -0)Other @ 0.32% Total : 22.65% | 1-2 @ 9.35% ( -0) 0-1 @ 7.34% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.79% ( 0)1-3 @ 5.76% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 4.19% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.97% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.67% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.94% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.84% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.83% Total : 48.65% |
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