New York City have proven to be a tough team to beat this season, and although Columbus usually fare well at home against Saturday's opponents, we think that the hosts will have to settle for a draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 39.28%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 33.76% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.37%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (9.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Columbus Crew would win this match.
-1.45) 
0.28) 
