SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 43.3%. A win for DC United had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest DC United win was 0-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| CF Montreal | Draw | DC United |
43.3% ( 0.31) | 25.14% ( 0.01) | 31.56% ( -0.32) |
| Both teams to score 55.97% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.58% ( -0.16) | 47.42% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.37% ( -0.15) | 69.63% ( 0.15) |
| CF Montreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.11% ( 0.07) | 21.88% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.86% ( 0.11) | 55.13% ( -0.11) |
| DC United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.66% ( -0.28) | 28.34% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.92% ( -0.36) | 64.08% ( 0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| CF Montreal | Draw | DC United |
| 1-0 @ 9.42% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.16% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 4.57% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.63% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.74% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.4% Total : 43.3% | 1-1 @ 11.88% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 5.69% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.14% | 0-1 @ 7.82% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.49% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 4.93% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.72% Total : 31.56% |
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