Historically, Atlanta have never gone goalless in any MLS encounter against their Saturday adversaries, but without Martinez, they are not the same team, and we do not expect them to create a ton of opportunities against a side who have played a much stingier defensive game in recent weeks.
It seems as though being eliminated from the CCL was a blessing in disguise for Montreal, who have settled into quite a groove, limiting the number of opportunities of their opponents while their best players have shown up when needed.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 42.36%. A win for Atlanta United had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Atlanta United win was 0-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.
